Billy Brentford examines the causes and possible consequences of Britain's recent Brexit vote.
I’m having kittens, here!
Sorry everyone, but this had been coming for a while. The prime minister, to stem the rise of UKIP for short-term political gain, promised the in-out referendum in last year’s election. England is a conservative country. We’ve had immigration for years, firstly after the war when empire nationals were asked to come and fill in in the job market; and there was a clear link made between the EU debate and migrants.
The newspapers are the most right wing in Europe and have been rattling on about Muslims and benefit cheats since 9/11 and after 7/11, and the murder of a soldier outside his barracks – we’ve seen the huge rise of social media sassy street-nazis. The ‘Leave’ vote has legitimised this.
The newspapers are the most right wing in Europe
The Cities are hugely diverse, and largely tolerant. As we saw in the Austrian elections recently, it’s the shires which are scared of the bogeyman. The frivolous, the ignored, the poor, the desperate were inspired by Boris Johnson (official Leave) and Nigel Farage (right-wing leader of UKIP and an MEP) who have both been non-stop TV guests for years. Farage is now the democrat.
17.2 million people voted ‘out’ in a 70% turnout. The UK government will have to invoke Article 50, even though constitutionally they don’t have to. The fascists will scream that “ordinary, decent” people have been ignored and, US style, will succeed in making folk believe the “establishment” don’t listen to them.
Our democracy is a sham. Establishment wealth, the aristocracy, the unelected House of Lords, the newspaper barons are in control. It’s an oligarchy. Unbelievably, the very party designed to protect establishment wealth is now putting it at serious risk. Financial market volatility will persist, while uncertainty over the future of the UK’s relationship with the EU will feed into ‘real’ economy.
Our democracy is a sham. Establishment wealth, the aristocracy, the unelected House of Lords, the newspaper barons are in control.
New PM Mrs May will invoke Article 50 and negotiations will begin. The UK will agree an EEA-style deal with significant constraints on services access in return for limitations on migration. Debt will be 10% of GDP by 2018.
Leavers will tell voters they won’t get what they want on migration. This will lead to a major backlash and a structural rise for the radical right. UKIP will mount a serious challenge in Labour’s northern England heartlands. Labour has already lost the seats it could rely on in Scotland to the Scottish Nationalists after the Scottish referendum on Independence.
The EU will be able to handle this crisis, but not several crises at once. Calls for referendums in France and Denmark will cause a major crisis in Brussels.
A Second referendum in Scotland. The UK will break up. Labour party will split in two, a Socialist rump and a Liberal-capitalist right and become a third force in UK politics. The Trade Union movement will be split by this. Irish Republicans will call for a united Ireland causing an uprising in armed violence in Ulster.
The UK is now a cat which has meowed to go out. The door is open, and it’s just sitting there…
Anyway – the weather’s been quite nice.